June 4th Market Commentary

June 4, 2018

The Markets

If the countries were instruments, last week sounded like a fifth grade garage band.

World markets were buffeted by a clamor of good, bad, and unexpected news last week. Events that captured media and investor attention included:

• Taxing America’s allies. Early in the week, investors weren’t the only ones riled by the administration announcement it would impose hefty trade tariffs on American allies. “Brussels’ top trade official vowed to respond to Donald Trump’s new tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from the EU, Canada, and Mexico with measures of its own, and warned that the EU has “closed the door” on trade talks with the U.S.”

• Breaking protocol. A strong unemployment report helped settle volatility stirred up by tariff talk. However, a preemptive Presidential tweet introduced controversy. “While not breaking the 8:30 a.m. EDT embargo on the actual numbers, Trump’s tweet appeared to violate a 1985 federal rule barring members of the executive branch from commenting on the employment report until one hour after the release of the report in order to avoid affecting ‘financial and commodity markets,’” reported Barron’s.

• Counting chickens. Although the summit with North Korea is on the calendar again, the commemorative Korea Peace Talks Coin is selling at a 20 percent discount in the White House gift shop.

• Puzzling choices. Giuseppe Conte is Italy’s new Prime Minister. He has a tough job ahead. Despite electing “…western Europe’s first anti-establishment government bent on overhauling European Union rules on budgets and immigration,” Italians aren’t keen on leaving the euro behind. Last week, “…opinion polls…showed between 60 and 72 percent of Italians did not want to abandon the euro,” reported Reuters.

Despite the noise, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and NASDAQ forged ahead last week. That may have something to do with valuations. Barron’s wrote, “…the S&P 500…now trades at 16.5 times 12-month earnings estimates, down from 18.2 at the beginning of the year…”

 

IT’S WATER UNDER THE BRIDGE. Water is so common we tend to take it for granted. We drink it, cook with it, wash with it, swim in it, and rarely give it much thought. We should, though, because fresh water is more rare than many people realize. According to National Geographic, “Over 68 percent of the fresh water on Earth is found in icecaps and glaciers, and just over 30 percent is found in ground water. Only about 0.3 percent of our fresh water is found in the surface water of lakes, rivers, and swamps.” Here are some other notable facts about water:

1. Our planet is mostly H2O. However, more than 96 percent of the water on Earth is salt water.

2. The atoms in the water you drink today were around when dinosaurs roamed the Earth.

3. Water is the only compound on earth that can be found naturally in three forms – solid, liquid, and gas.

4. The average person in the United States uses 80 to 100 gallons of water each day, according to the U.S. Department of Interior’s estimates.

5. Thermal power plants generate the majority of the world’s electricity – more than 81 percent – and cannot run without water.

6. ‘Day Zero’ is the day Cape Town, South Africa will become the first major metropolis to run out of water. When it arrives, residents will receive rations of seven gallons a day.

Fresh water may soon be top of mind for everyone because it is rapidly becoming a scarce resource.

McKinsey & Company estimates suggest current water supplies will meet just 60 percent of global demand by 2030. The fraction may be lower in countries like China, India, and South Africa where water supplies are already under stress.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“To find the universal elements enough; to find the air and the water exhilarating; to be refreshed by a morning walk or an evening saunter…to be thrilled by the stars at night; to be elated over a bird's nest or a wildflower in spring – these are some of the rewards of the simple life.”
--John Burroughs, American Naturalist

* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:
https://www.ft.com/content/11d2890a-65b6-11e8-a39d-4df188287fff (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/06-04-18_FinancialTimes-Global_Markets_Rally_as_US_Jobs_Growth_Calms_Volatility-Footnote_1.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/articles/take-this-jobs-report-and-tweet-it-1527897844 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/06-04-18_Barrons-Take_this_Jobs_Report_and_Tweet_It-Footnote_2.pdf
https://www.whitehousegiftshop.com/searchresults.asp?Search=commemorative+coins&Submit=
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics/markets-breathe-easier-as-italy-government-sworn-in-idUSKCN1IX49T
http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html (Click on U.S. & Intl Recaps, “Italy and Spain steer investor expectations”, scroll down to chart) (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/06-04-18_Barrons-Global_Stock_Market_Recap-Footnote_5.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-shows-nerves-of-steel-amid-trade-tensions-1527897602 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/06-04-18_Barrons-Dow_Shows_Nerves_of_Steel_Amid_Trade_Tensions-Footnote_6.pdf
https://www.nationalgeographic.org/media/earths-fresh-water/
https://water.usgs.gov/edu/earthhowmuch.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/z22fb82
https://www3.epa.gov/safewater/kids/water_trivia_facts.html
https://water.usgs.gov/edu/qa-home-percapita.html
http://www.wri.org/blog/2018/01/power-plants-use-water-we-have-no-idea-how-much
http://www.newsweek.com/day-zero-drought-cape-town-792036
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/the-business-opportunity-in-water-conservation
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/john_burroughs_760773?src=t_water

May 29th Market Commentary

May 29, 2018

The Markets

Geopolitical uncertainty didn’t dent U.S. stocks last week.

Geopolitics is the intersection of geography, economics, and politics. Last week, there were some fine examples of the ways geopolitical events can create uncertainty. Barron’s reported:

“President Donald Trump began the week suggesting that a trade war with China was on hold, before later ordering his administration to explore penalties on imported automobiles. The president also canceled talks with North Korea. Italy’s bond market melted down following the emergence of a Euroskeptic government, while Turkey’s lira tumbled over concerns that President Tayyip Erdogan would take control of its central bank, raising concerns about emerging markets.”

Uncertainty caused major indices across Europe to finish lower last week. A majority of Asian-Pacific indices moved south, too, as did Canadian and Mexican indices. Despite pessimism elsewhere, investors in the United States remained unfazed and major U.S. stock market indices finished the week higher. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index was up 0.3 percent.

The strong performance of U.S. markets last week was remarkable because the S&P 500 moved higher on news that would seem to inspire uncertainty. It was also remarkable because U.S. stocks gained less when S&P 500 companies reported first quarter profits were better than expected.

First quarter’s earnings season – when companies report how profitable they were during the first quarter – is almost over. A majority of S&P 500 companies did better than expected, according to FactSet. However, companies with stronger than expected earnings saw share prices increase 0.2 percent on average, less than share prices increased last week.

During the past five years, companies with higher-than-expected profits have realized share price gains of 1.1 percent.

 

WORKING OUT THE BUGS. There was a lot of news about new inventions last week. Some devices appear to have potential while others have been delivering unexpected results. Take a look at recent innovation news:

• Droning on. Remember the vehicles Galactic storm troopers rode into battle against the Ewoks in Star Wars? They’re now available on Earth. Hover bikes look a lot like a super-sized drone that can carry a person. They can travel up to 13 miles or 20 minutes, at speeds up to 43 miles an hour, before recharging is needed.

• Shhh. It’s listening. Smart speakers made the news last week after it was widely reported that one had recorded a family’s conversation and sent it to someone on their contact list. A writer for MIT Technology Review investigated further, checking her smart speaker history. She found:

“…in the past several months it has also tuned in, frequently several times a day, for no obvious reason. It’s heard me complain to my dad about something work-related, chide my toddler about eating dinner, and talk to my husband – the kinds of normal, everyday things you say at home when you think no one else is listening.”

• Diagnosed by math. There’s a new algorithm in town. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) just gave the thumbs-up to artificial intelligence that helps surgeons detect wrist fractures, reported MIT Technology Review. In fact, the FDA is “writing new rules to speed up approvals for AI-based devices and tools.”

• Folding wingtips. It seems like poor design, but some planes’ wingspans are too wide for standard airport gates. Instead of asking airports to build special gates, the Federal Aviation Administration approved folding wingtips on Friday.

We know change is constant. Adapting to change is the challenge.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Our flag does not fly because the wind moves it. It flies with the last breath of each soldier who died protecting it.”
--Unknown

* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-ticks-higher-but-beware-a-summer-storm-1527292801 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/05-29-18_Barrons-Dow_Ticks_Higher_but_Beware_a_Summer_Storm-Footnote_1.pdf
http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html (Click on U.S. & Intl Recaps, then click on "Shadows over the financial markets") (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/05-29-18_Barrons-Global_Stock_Market_Recap-Footnote_2.pdf
https://insight.factset.com/market-did-not-reward-sp-500-companies-reporting-positive-eps-surprises-again-in-q1
https://www.hoversurf.com/scorpion-3
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611216/yes-alexa-is-recording-mundane-details-of-your-life-and-its-creepy-as-hell/
https://www.technologyreview.com/the-download/611215/another-ai-powered-device-gets-the-fdas-blessing/
https://www.technologyreview.com/the-download/611179/boeings-folding-wings-are-cleared-for-takeoff/
https://www.countryliving.com/life/g4398/memorial-day-quotes/?slide=11

May 21st Market Commentary

May 21, 2018

The Markets

Too much? Too little? Or just right? 

U.S. stock markets were relatively calm, although they finished the week lower. U.S. Treasury yields hit a 7-year high and finished the week above 3 percent. While these were notable, the most remarkable events last week occurred beyond our borders. These include:

• The Vatican publishing a position paper on financial markets. Its opening was, “Economic and financial issues draw our attention today as never before because of the growing influence of financial markets on the material well-being of most of humankind. What is needed, on the one hand, is an appropriate regulation of the dynamics of the markets and, on the other hand, a clear ethical foundation that assures a well-being realized through the quality of human relationships rather than merely through economic mechanisms that by themselves cannot attain it.”

• The royal wedding boosting the British economy. A normal Britain wedding costs about £18 thousand and includes about 80 guests. Prince Harry’s nuptials were a bit more lavish. A wedding planning company estimated the cost of hosting 600 or more guests at £32 million ($43 million in U.S. dollars). The largest component of the cost was £30 million for security, which included drone destroyers.

• Venezuela’s oil-based economy continuing to collapse as oil prices rise. “Venezuela leads the world in two things: oil reserves and incompetence,” opined The Washington Post. Poor management of the state-run oil industry has caused production to drop 23 percent since December. The country’s declining production helped push oil prices higher last week. Prices are at levels last seen in 2014, reported Financial Times. Regardless of the country’s economic woes, this weekend’s election is not expected to oust President Nicolás Maduro.

Rising oil prices have pushed the cost of gas higher, but that’s not expected to deter Memorial Day travelers, according to USA Today. We wish you safe travels during the holiday weekend.

 

DID YOU KNOW THERE’S A BILLIONAIRE CENSUS? Last week, the fifth edition of the Billionaire Census was released. Apparently, the wealth of billionaires increased by 24 percent during 2017. In addition, the billionaire population, which had suffered reduced numbers since 2015, expanded. It now includes 2,754 individuals. The previous high was 2,473 in 2015. According to Wealth-X:

• 816 live in the Asia-Pacific region
• 884 live in the Americas
• 1,054 live in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa

There is a bit of disagreement about the size of the ‘Three-Comma Club’ and the rate at which its wealth is increasing. In March 2018, Forbes reported there were “…2,208 billionaires from 72 countries and territories including the first ever from Hungary and Zimbabwe. This elite group is worth $9.1 trillion, up 18 percent since last year. Their average net worth is a record $4.1 billion. Americans lead the way with a record 585 billionaires, followed by Mainland China with 373.”

Two hundred and fifty-six women made the list, including 42 new additions.

The Giving Pledge is another exclusive group that some billionaires have joined. The objective of the Pledge is to “…help address society’s most pressing problems by inviting the world’s wealthiest individuals and families to commit more than half of their wealth to philanthropy or charitable causes either during their lifetime or in their will.”

As of February 2018, 175 billionaires from 22 countries had joined.

Weekly Focus – Think About It 

“Philanthropy is almost the only virtue which is sufficiently appreciated by mankind.” 
--Henry David Thoreau, American essayist and naturalist

* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:
https://www.ft.com/content/584a9610-5ab8-11e8-b8b2-d6ceb45fa9d0 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/05-21-18_FinancialTimes-US_Stocks_Mixed_Treasuries_Rally_as_Markets_Eye_Trade_Talks-Footnote_1.pdf)
http://press.vatican.va/content/salastampa/en/bollettino/pubblico/2018/05/17/180517a.html
https://bridebook.co.uk/article/harry-and-meghan-royal-wedding-cost
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/18/oil-was-the-only-thing-keeping-venezuela-afloat-now-the-government-is-too-dysfunctional-to-even-pump-it/?noredirect=on 
https://www.ft.com/content/1e4ae576-5ac4-11e8-b8b2-d6ceb45fa9d0 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/05-21-18_FinancialTimes-The_Week_in_Energy-Regulations_Unintended_Consequences-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://www.ft.com/content/a4049438-5aa0-11e8-bdb7-f6677d2e1ce8 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/05-21-18_FinancialTimes-Disillusioned_Venezuelans_Set_to_Shun_Election-Footnote_6.pdf)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/aaa-415m-travelers-for-memorial-day-weekend-a-5-25-hike-despite-higher-gas-prices/ar-AAxgCMK
https://www.wealthx.com/report/the-wealth-x-billionaire-census-2018/?utm_campaign=billionaire-census-2018&utm_source=press&utm_medium=referral&utm_term=bc-2018-press&utm_source=press&utm_medium=referral&mod=article_inline
https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/#1d1efa68251c
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jenniferwang/2018/03/06/richest-women/#446741af81f1
https://www.givingpledge.org/About.aspx (Click on “How many people have joined the Giving Pledge, and where are they from?”)
http://www.philanthropicpeople.com/2013/10/14/10-inspiring-philanthropy-quotes/